Day 38, Mat115H

• I'm compiled the Wednesday homework that I've received. Make sure that I have a record of receiving yours (i.e., that it's in the data set, or that you received your paper back).

• Reminder that you have homework due today:
  • For today: Submit your lead levels for the Newport sites from the USAToday study (please submit electronically, as well).

    Tuesday night I'll "seal" the data set. If you want to get me anything, please do it by tomorrow night. We should have all the lead data and data locations now. It will then be time to wrap up our analysis.

  • There was a talk on the lead project on Saturday, 3:15, for the Kentucky Academy of Sciences. I met Emily, who provided me with the LH data set. Some things we discussed:
    • She claimed that lead doesn't migrate through the soil very well.
    • When asked, she wasn't sure that the levels of lead that they're seeing in their site are correlated well with distance from the smelter.
    • She pointed me to a poster by a student named Nick, who is studying the ratios of isotopes of lead, to see if he can say that the lead in the neighborhood is due to the smelter (rather than paint, say).

I've compiled the survey. I'll have Kara do it as well, as her contribution to the survey. We'll double enter the data, and see if we get the same results. Here are some preliminary results, the distribution of responses. What can you gather from these (preliminarily!)?

All:

 (A1 Provide (a d sd sa) (27 4 5 18))
 (A2 Safe  (a d sa sd) (33 8 11 2))
 (A3 Eat/Ex (a d sa sd) (32 12 8 2))
 (A4 Someone (d a sa sd) (3 22 26 3))
 (A5 Community (a d sd sa x) (30 15 3 5 1))
 (A6 Hope (a d sa x sd) (24 3 25 1 1))
 (B Age (50 31 16 15) (13 21 15 5))
 (C Gender (m f x) (22 28 4))
 (D Newport (w e x) (29 21 4)))
		

 ((a d sa sd) (18 3 7 1))
 ((a d sa sd) (19 5 4 1))
 ((a d sa sd) (17 9 2 1))
 ((d a sa sd) (1 16 11 1))
 ((a d sd sa x) (13 7 3 5 1))
 ((a d sa sd) (14 2 12 1))
 ((50 31 16 15) (5 11 10 3))
 ((m f x) (12 15 2))
 ((w) (29)))

 ((d sd sa a) (1 3 10 7))
 ((d a sd sa) (3 11 1 6))
 ((a d sa sd) (12 3 5 1))
 ((a d sa sd) (5 1 14 1))
 ((d a) (7 14))
 ((d a sa x) (1 8 11 1))
 ((16 31 50 15) (4 10 6 1))
 ((f m x) (12 8 1))
 ((e) (21)))

We're getting close to finishing the "todo" list that I started for the lead project:

My big picture "to do" list:

1. We have physical coordinates for the lead data in, as well as estimates of corresponding lead levels at each location.

   This graphic was generated using lead values from the GraceSandra method provided by Grace.

   Let's check preliminary lead levels and coordinates

2. We have physical coordinates for the lead data in the Newport vicinity of the smelter from the USA Today study, as well as estimates of corresponding lead levels at each location.

   Let's check preliminary lead levels and coordinates

3. We have constructed a soil lead profile, based on the tests at different soil levels.

   I might want to review our assumptions here, however, for several reasons, including this new one:

   

4. We have proposed a solution to the problem of toxic levels of lead, that doesn't require moving soil to or from the site.

5. We need to discuss how to map lead for all of Newport, if possible -- based on assumptions such as
   

6. Finally we need to consolidate this into a summary report.

• I did a search of lead pollution patterns, and found this interesting study and the associated graphic:
  

  

  The dashed curve is suburban males; the solid curve is urban males.

• I also did a little further study of the USAToday report. There were smelters nearby in Cincinnati, upwind from Newport. They, too, could have contributed to Newport's lead load.
  • USAToday report tipped me off
  • to this site in Cincinnati (by the way, Certified Metals also owned the Newport Foundry site at one time). P. 7 of 33 has the lead levels.

• It is important that we determine prevailing winds for Newport:
  • A crack at Prevailing Winds

This report contains a couple of graphs which show off the data values, the way I would like to for our data. Some quotes from their study:

• Most homes in St. Paul and Minneapolis are old enough to once have had substantial concentrations of lead in exterior and interior paint. The 2000 Census documented that 89% of the homes in Minneapolis and St. Paul were built before 1978, which is the year lead was banned in residential paint. The City of Minneapolis reports that levels of 350 ppm in soil collected near house foundations are typical throughout Minneapolis. Elevated lead is also found in residential areas from past emissions of leaded gasoline, especially near busy neighborhood streets.
• There are sites in Minnesota where it has been possible to attribute lead in the soil to emissions from former lead smelters. However, in this case it would be difficult, if not impossible to attribute lead concentrations in those two residential neighborhoods to the former smelters in the USA Today story. The heterogeneity of the lead soil sampling results reported in the neighborhoods surrounding the former smelter sites suggests that the lead is likely not due to area-wide contamination from air emissions from a former smelter stack. Determining the source of lead in soil may be possible through expensive lead isotope laboratory analyses, but such a project would take time, may not produce definitive results, and would not lead to different public health conclusions and recommendations.

• Keener, et al. have looked at lead in Newport, and done their own sampling.
• Eventually I will share this presentation that I gave to math majors at Murray State University, many years ago. Although it was given to math majors, the major ideas can be understood by anyone. Hence we will will gloss over some of the specifics, without sacrificing the big ideas.

But there are other things to talk about from that study.

It motivated another class in the Project Hope initiative, of which Emily Keener was a member to write the following report. Emily Keener was kind enough to tip me off to the existence of the Superfund report.

One of the students on this project went on to write the Enquirer article which just came out.

We're using the KY EPA lead data to

1. map the yard around the former smelter, and determine a "lead load" in the immediate vicinity of the smelter, and to
2. get a "soil lead profile" -- since we have multiple lead levels at each site. So let's talk about this one today. It will help us to get an answer to the previous problem.

   In the end, we get results that look like these.