Don’t you try and pretend
It’s my feeling we’ll win in the end
I won’t harm you or touch your defenses
Vanity and security
--Simple Minds
Posts to Ponder Archives (Updated
01/23/2009 05:14 PM)
Minyanville's
News and Views and
Buzz and Banter represent real time 'streams of consciousness' flowing from
the minds of the Minyanville
professors. The
professors are sharing what they are thinking and doing about markets.
Observing the thought processes of experts can be a great way to learn. For new students, however, reading 'full strength'
Minyanville content can be challenging. The language and concepts can be
tough for novices to decipher.
The Posts to Ponder section
of the UMV webpage serves as
a filter of sorts. Each day, we scan the hundreds of Minyanville posts,
mining the wealth of daily content for nuggets rich in learning
potential. The P2P posts have been 'handpicked' for newcomers seeking to
learn more about financial markets while still being connected to the daily
flow.
The P2P archives appear below.
Executive Action
January 23, 2009
Prof Jeffery
notes precedents for a post inauguration market rally during tough economic
times.
Reach the Beach
January 22, 2009
Minyan Peter
thinks that the international reach of big banks will shrink.
Play It Again
January 21, 2009
Prof Depew
suspects that there's no established playbook available for combating
current economic problems.
Wild Kingdom
January 20, 2009
Minyan Peter
reflects on the end of the 'financial supermarket' concept.
Attitude Adjustment
January 19, 2009
Prof Shedlock
discusses the collective shift in attitudes that reflect a deflationary
mindset.
Staying Power
January 15, 2009
Toddo
notes the importance of staying the course during difficult market periods.
Future Shock
January 14, 2009
Minyan Peter
likes to use corporate balance sheets to forecast the future. What's his
assessment?
Counter Balance
January 13, 2009
Prof Depew
suggests why the seemingly 'obvious' case for
inflation may be wrong.
China Syndrome
January 12, 2009
Prof Jeffery
ponders potential consequences if China continues to scale back on buying US
debt.
Dissenting Vote
January 9, 2009
Prof Depew
notes that not all economists are on board the government spending
bandwagon.
Map Quest
January 8, 2009
Toddo and
Prof Fleckenstein map some themes for 2009.
Turtle Soup
January 7, 2009
Prof Depew
suggests that low Treasury bond yields 'correctly' reflect
deflationary times. Minyan Peter
adds that people who anticipate a snappy turnaround may be waiting a while.
Save Haven
January 6, 2009
Mr Practical
argues that our debt problem cannot be solved by more debt and central
planning. Saving and private enterprise will be necessary.
Chilly
Forecast
January 5, 2009
Prof
Depew forecasts
deflationary conditions for 2009.
Critter
Critique
January 2, 2009
Hoofy
& Boo review
some 2008 happenings.
Tough
Times
December 31, 2008
Professor
Shedlock presents
wealth, job, and wage data that suggest a tough start for 2009.
Anti
Social
December 30, 2008
Prof
Depew sees
trends towards disassociation and retribution as consistent with a darkening
social mood.
Bargain
Hunter
December 29, 2008
While
lower prices suggest bargains, Minyan Peter still
thinks return of capital should remain investors' primary
focus.
Performance
Review
December 26, 2008
Toddo
reviews
the status of ten themes he articulated in early '08.
Getting
Practical
December 24, 2008
Following
up on an earlier
missive, Mr P fields
questions and concerns about navigating this difficult financial
period.
Path
Finders
December 23, 2008
Minyan
Jeff
Saut and Prof Mauldin
ponder the consequences of last week's Federal Reserve actions.
Rate
Debate
December 22, 2008
Should
investors buy stocks on the back of recent Fed interest rate cuts? Prof Depew debates.
Style
Guide
December 19, 2008
Prof
Catalano compares
concentrated and diversified portfolio styles.
Extreme
Measures
December 18, 2008
Prof
Jeffery observes
that the Fed's extreme actions yesterday have done little to thaw credit markets
in the near term.
Weird
Science
December 18, 2008
Mr
Practical distinguishes
between wealth and money. Can the Fed's money printing initiatives
create wealth?
Auto
Motives
December 17, 2008
Prof
Jeffery suggests
that an automaker bailout may still mean bankruptcy.
Less
Than Zero
December 16, 2008
As
interest rates approach zero, Prof Depew discusses (1,2)
what's left in the Fed's arsenal for influencing money and credit growth.
Dazed
and Confused
December 15, 2008
Prof
Depew suggests
that the blizzard of economic problems may prompt perceptions of conspiracy
among average individuals.
Ups
and Downs
December 12, 2008
Prof
Catalano explains
the technical indicator known as slow stochastics.
Wag
the Dog
December 11, 2008
Check
out where 2008 currently falls on a distribution of annual returns on
the S&P 500 index.
Extreme
Measures
December 10, 2008
Prof
Goepfert finds
that overbought extremes similar to the current market situation have
historically been bullish.
Regulation
Nation
December 9, 2008
Prof
Sedacca suggests
that making successful financial decisions in this market requires thinking like
a regulator.
Point
Counterpoint
December 8, 2008
How
long will this recession persist? Prof Depew considers
both sides of the argument.
Hitting
the Brakes
December 5, 2008
Prof
Reeves suggests
that lower oil prices will slow progress in alternative energy development.
Quest
for Value
December 4, 2008
Prof
Plessis shares
historical data that suggest higher stock market returns relate to lower
valuations when stocks are purchased.
Extra
Extra!
December 3, 2008
Hoofy
& Boo pocket
an Emmy Award!
Back
to Basics
December 2, 2008
Minyan
Jeff Saut suspects
that it may be time to become a buy and hold investor again.
Extra
Credit
December 1, 2008
Prof
Plessis reviews
key indicators of credit market health. What do these metrics imply?
Thrift
Shift
November 28, 2008
Prof
Jeffery suspects
that thrifty habits this holiday season may benefit us in the long run.
Fortune
Teller
November 27, 2008
After
realizing good fortune in a difficult environment, Prof Macke ponders
shutting down trading operations for the rest of the year.
Grand
Illusion
November 26, 2008
Mr Practical notes
that stock price increases driven by dollar devaluation is not a good thing.
Powering Down
November 25, 2008
Prof Jeffery
reports that large utility companies are seeing steeper drops in electricity
consumption than in previous downturns.
Time Tunnel
November 24, 2008
Prof Katsenelson
argues against market timing for long term investors.
Make It So
November 21, 2008
Prof Zucchi
ponders a situation where the government wipes away speculative credit
default swap contracts.
Social
Studies
November 20, 2008
Prof Depew
links the field of socionomics to market behavior.
Guide Post
November 19, 2008
Checking in from Japan, Mr P
suggests that our 'guides' are giving us the wrong directions. What does Mr
P advise?
Bond Agent
November 18, 2008
Prof Sedacca currently
sees more longer term opportunities in bonds than in stocks.
General
Hospital
November 17, 2008
Minyan Peter
thinks that, although the financial system has been stabilized, a cancerous
disease remains.
Last Chance
Branch
November 14, 2008
As more companies step forward
requesting bailouts, Prof Depew
ponders whether we have the will to stop them.
Spec Sheet
November 13, 2008
Prof Goepfert
senses that lack of speculation in pink sheet stocks may signal a
turnaround.
Jumping the
Shark
November 12, 2008
Toddo
wonders whether we might quickly 'jump the shark' from deflation to
hyperinflation. What does Mr P suggest?
Dirty Windows
November 12, 2008
Prof Jeffery
notes that government communication concerning the bailout is becoming more
opaque.
Change of
Scenery
November 11, 2008
Professor Depew
explains why he thinks hyperinflation is not a likely scenario in the near
term.
Social
Studies
November 10, 2008
Mr P
shares an example of how government intervention in markets leads to
unintended, and undesirable, consequences.
Emotion in
Motion
November 7, 2008
How emotions
can bias decision-making.
Cause and
Effect
November 6, 2008
Minyan Peter
notes that the 10 largest rallies in US market history followed government
interventions.
Hamburger
Hill
November 5, 2008
Prof Depew
thinks that bureaucrats are under estimating the severity of credit market
problems.
Trick or
Treat
November 4, 2008
Toddo
dons a costume as 'The US Economy' and has some Halloween fun on the NYC
subway.
Scare Tactics
November 3, 2008
Prof Depew
shares some 'spooky' credit market data.
Car Crash
October 31, 2008
Podcast discusses car company bailout vs. bankruptcy, among other issues.
Double Header
October 30, 2008
Prof Fleckenstein
ponders what's in store after this phase of the credit crunch.
Back in the
U.S.S.A.
October 29, 2008
Prof Sedacca
discusses state control of markets and our growing investment portfolio run
by the government.
Staying Power
October 28, 2008
Jeff Saut
notes that a key to successful investing is to avoid catastrophic losses.
Podcast Broadcast
October 27, 2008
On
this podcast, Profs Depew and Bortnicker
discuss inflation vs deflation, among other things.
Against the Wind
October 24, 2008
How Prof Katsenelson
copes with buying stock in declining
markets.
Alphabet Soup
October 23, 2008
Prof Payne
discusses some of the acronym heavy bail
out programs.
Sinking Ships
October 22, 2008
Prof Shedlock
discusses the dramatic decline in
overseas shipping volume.
Hunkering Down
October 21, 2008
Given the current credit market
situation, Prof Depew
advises individuals to pay down debt and
save capital for future buying opportunities.
Burned at the Stake
October 20, 2008
Can we blame the credit crisis
on free markets if they
no longer exist?
On DeMark
October 17, 2008
To evaluate the potential for a
market trend change, Prof Depew
shares a technique for assessing whether
a current trend is near exhaustion.
A New New Deal
October 16, 2008
Prof Goldberg
wonders building projects similar to
those undertaken during the Great Depression could buoy the economy.
Political Economy
October 15, 2008
Professor Reeves
reminds us that US government
intervention in markets is nothing new.
Lessons Learned
October 14, 2008
On the back of last week's
waterfall decline and Monday's huge rally, Toddo
offers some lessons from the market
action.
Survival Instinct
October 13, 2008
In this
crash like market environment, Minyan
Peter suggests we've entered an
Age of Self-Preservation.
Casualties of War
October 13, 2008
Toddo
senses that the government may regard
hedge funds as acceptable casualties in pending bailout schemes.
Force of Fear
October 10, 2008
Prof Linden
distinguishes between selling and forced
selling.
Bottoms Up
October 9, 2008
Prof Jeffery
notes that, although many are looking for
a quick end to the market decline, bottoming is typically more of a process that
occurs over a period of time.
5 Point Plan
October 8, 2008
After the Fed chairman announced
that he welcomed ideas on how to reopen credit markets, Minyan Peter
outlines his plan.
Fading Away
October 7, 2008
Despite some big picture
concerns and big drops in market indices, Toddo
explains why he's bullish for a trade.
Fallout Shelter
October 6, 2008
Seeking an after work cool down
at a NYC bar, Toddo
encounters folks who have been negatively
impacted by declining markets.
Mega Trending
October 3, 2008
Prof Catalano
explains how to determine the market's
'mega trend.'
Fourth and Long
October 2, 2008
Prof Tafel
reviews Q3 and notes some situations
worth watching in Q4. What seems to be his most important watchlist item?
Irish Coffee
October 1, 2008
MV profs
debate Ireland's decisions to backstop
all bank deposits. Nice example of
seeing both sides of the trade.
Youth Movement
September 30, 2008
Mr Practical writes an
open letter to young taxpayers. What does
he suggest young people do?
Deflation Station
September 30, 2008
Prof Sedacca
thinks that the data suggest we've moved
decisively into a state of
deflation.
Words of Wisdom
September 29, 2008
If you seek better understanding
of current market issues, then Toddo's
conversation with Mr Practical is must
reading.
Full Circle
September 29, 2008
On the back of recent events,
Prof Succo's experiences with
Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) and
Lehman (LEH)
comes full circle.
The Gold Police
September 27, 2008
Did you know that the US
government
confiscated gold coins and bullion in
1933? And outlawed public ownership till 1974? Could it happen again?
Beating the Pros
September 27, 2008
Prof Catalano
offers thoughts on how average investors
can exploit the weaknesses of the pros.
Hammering on Hank
September 26, 2008
Has criticism of Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson been unfair? Toddo
weighs in.
Media Mindset
September 26, 2008
Prof
Reeves
discusses the dynamics that drive
financial media to report rumors as news.
Shock & Awe
September 25, 2008
Toddo
ponders the proposed financial system bailout, bans on short selling, and
the consequences of these interventions.
A Landscape
Reshaped
September 24, 2008
With the
reconfiguration of Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), the
investment banking industry has been
radically altered. Prof Jeffery
discusses GS and MS in their new forms as more traditional banks.
Seems Like
Old Times
September 23, 2008
Prof Depew
observes that, while unprecedented in magnitude, recent government sponsored
bailout efforts are hardly unique.
Week of
Infamy
September 22, 2008
Seeking to wrap your head
around a week that may have permanently altered financial markets? Start with
this anthology.
Agency
Problem
September 22, 2008
Prof Macke
elaborates the role of credit rating agencies in exacerbating market
turmoil.
Wrap Music
September 19, 2008
In this
excellent summary of market events and issues, Prof Fleckenstein suggests
the root causes of current problems relate to the Greenspan era Federal Reserve.
Thriving on
Chaos
September 18, 2008
Selected reading on a very
newsworthy market day:
AIG bailout and
ramifications, risk in
money market funds,
big move in gold, flight to
T-bill safety, short selling
restraints, Russian
market meltdown, the
rapidly changing financial landscape.
Jedi Mind
Trick
September 17, 2008
Toddo
suggests that the Fed, rather than cutting interest rates today as many
expected, is conserving ammunition for an eminent bail out of American
International Group (AIG).
Getting to
Better
September 16, 2008
Toddo
opines that these difficult market times are necessary in order to get to
better times that are more durable.
Next Exit
September 15, 2008
With today's
flurry of market machinations, Prof Jeffery
senses that American International Group (AIG) may wind up claiming the
largest financial market red flag to date.
Manic Monday
September 15, 2008
Toddo
reflects on the big Monday morning
news involving Lehman (LEH), Merrill (MER), and others. What does he
conclude?
Hedge Hogs
September 12, 2008
Prof Jeffery
reports on the tough times in the hedge fund industry.
Never Forget
September 11, 2008
Toddo
remembers The Worst Day.
Only the
Beginning
September 11, 2008
Mr Practical
frames the Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) nationalization as a long term
negative for the US and world in general. Then, Mr P says goodbye.
Extra Credit
Points
September 10, 2008
Need a primer on the credit
market turmoil? Prof Depew
reviews the issues and suggests what's next.
Take a Load
Off Fannie
September 9, 2008
Today's epic
event was nationalization of
Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Is this a good thing? What do the
vibes of profs
Depew,
Jeffery,
Minyan Peter,
Saut,
Sedacca, and
Zucchi suggest?
Capital Hill
September 8, 2008
Minyan Peter
argues that financial markets need capital, not
liquidity. What does he think is a logical next step in the process?
Freak Out
September 5, 2008
Prof Depew
ponders bond mogul Bill Gross's plea to the US government to buy financial
assets. What does he conclude?
Time is Money
September 5, 2008
Conscious of the need for
identifying time horizons, Prof Catalano
emphasizes the importance of separating secular and cyclical trends.
Absorptive
Capacity
September 4, 2008
Toddo
perceives a big disconnect between action in the credit and equity markets.
How markets handle the pending big round of debt issuance may set the tone
into year end.
Crude
Attitude
September 3, 2008
Toddo
thinks that lower oil prices are indicative of slowing global economic
demand rather than as a 'plus' for stocks.
Spread Thread
September 2, 2008
From this
fine review by Prof Mauldin a) what is meant by 'credit spread'? b) are
spreads increasing or decreasing? c) what does this imply about the cost of
borrowing?
Time Tunnel
August 29, 2008
Nice chronology of events that have shaped credit market problems over the
past year or so.
Political
Economy
August 28, 2008
Mr Practical
opines that the economic interventions of politicians do more harm than
good.
Northern
Exposure
August 27, 2008
Prof Ryan
suggests that Canadian markets offer a host of investment opportunities.
Emotional Rescue
August 26, 2008
In
these videos, Toddo discusses credit markets, his current long and short
term investment strategies, hedge fund influence on markets, and other topics.
Action
Oriented
August 25, 2008
While many investors employ a
'buy and hold' strategy, Prof Cantalino
argues the merits of an 'actively managed' approach to investing.
Triple Threat
August 22, 2008
Three missives to strengthen
your grasp of current credit market problems: issues with
Fed induced bailouts, issues at
FDIC, firms
under stress.
Bell Bottom
Blues
August 21, 2008
Prof Depew
suggests that the 1970s version of stagflation should'nt be confused with
today's stagflationary context. How does he think the two periods differ?
Killer Bees
August 20, 2008
Prof Sedacca
discusses four factors that are lending an increasingly socialistic
dimension to financial markets.
Trading Post
August 19, 2008
Minyan Jeff Saut
thinks this market is more conducive to trading than investing.
Yellow Fever
August 18, 2008
Prof Depew
views the decline in gold as a symptom of larger deflationary pressures.
Oil Drop
August 15, 2008
Prof Reeves
reports that US consumption of oil declined last year, and is expected to do
the same this year and next year.
Gold Diggers
August 14, 2008
Does the recent steep decline
in gold prices mark the end to the bull market in the yellow metal? Profs
Lewis and
McGuirk think not.
Mr P
Potpourri
August 13, 2008
Mr Practical
weighs in on a number of issues such as the strong dollar, weak commodities,
and the importance of saving in this market environment.
Sadly Saving
August 12, 2008
Prof Depew
links trends in frugality with our economic condition.
Less for More
August 11, 2008
Prof Schuster
reports that many producers are offsetting cost increases by decreasing the
packaged quantity.
Hat in Hand
August 8, 2008
Depression? Where are the soup
lines? Prof Depew offers (#5)
some evidence.
Frames of
Mind
August 7, 2008
Toddo
positions his near term bullish view inside his long term bearish view.
Recession
Proof
August 6, 2008
Prof Jeffery
explains why government officials are afraid of uttering the word
'recession.'
Muddling
Through
August 5, 2008
Insight from Prof Mauldin on current market issues and their investment
implications. Quick Quiz:
This chart suggests that higher beginning period P/E ratios produce a)
higher b) lower subsequent 20 yr returns.
Banking
Welfare
August 4, 2008
Thoughtful
potpourri by Prof Depew on the financial crisis, including the concept of a
banking welfare state.
Friendly Feds
August 1, 2008
Prof Payne
notes the favorable government treatment that financial firms are receiving.
Toddo & Mr P
add to the color.
The Bigger
Picture
August 1, 2008
Mr Practical
suggests looking past misinformation often characteristic of deflationary
environments. What strategy does he advise for weathering this situation?
Hammer Time
July 31, 2008
Toddo
outlines bureaucratic forces working on financial markets. What are the
proposed consequences of these actions?
No Bull
July 30, 2008
On the heels of Merrill Lynch's
big mark to market write down, Todd
ponders the financial market consequences.
Captain
Crunch
July 29, 2008
Prof Depew
provides background on the 'credit crunch' and offers some thoughts on
what's ahead.
Reaping
Dividends
July 28, 2008
Although
many investors fixate on price increases, Prof Plessis notes
that dividends comprise a larger portion of historical stock returns.
Head
East
July 25, 2008
Prof
Jeffery observes
that, while economic outlook darkens in the US, Chinese citizens appear pleased
with their country's economic direction.
Squeeze
Play
July 24, 2008
Although
recent regulatory changes have squeezed
many bears out of the market, Mr Practical suggests
that risk is very high.
Open
Wallet Policy
July 24, 2008
Prof
Reeves warns
that, as government bailouts of financial institutions continue, folks should be
prepared to pay.
Credit
Check
July 23, 2008
Minyan
Peter suggests
that consumer deleveraging will result in greater loss rates at credit card
companies than most currently expect.
Saving
the Day
July 22, 2008
Prof
Depew reports (#3)
that US households currently save an average of $392 annually, the least since
1934. An interactive chart here
portrays a multi decade trend of increasing debt.
Wag
the Dog
July 21, 2008
Prof
Jeffery argues
that, rather than providing market stability, government intervention actually
increases probability of extreme price movement.
Home
Wreckers
July 18, 2008
Some
background
on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and how they're linked to credit
market issues. Plus, Toddo memos
Fannie's former CEO.
Idle
Time
July 17, 2008
Upon
reviewing magazine archives, Prof Depew concludes
that the Great Depression did not receive extensive coverage by 1930s media.
Short
Story
July 17, 2008
Prof
Erlanger argues
that the effect of short
interest on exacerbating market declines is overblown.
Think
Tank
July 16, 2008
Profs
Macke,
Jeffery,
and David
reflect on proposed or active government interventions in the credit markets.
Slump
Buster
July 16, 2008
Whether
you're a trader or investor, you'll benefit from Prof Tatro's thoughts
on breaking a losing streak.
Berry
Patch
July 15, 2008
Mr
P describes
the role of bureaucrats in shaping our current financial and economic problems.
Falling
Down
July 14, 2008
Minyan
Peter summarizes
the issues behind Fannie Mae (FNM) & Freddie Mac's (FRE) collapse. He also
suspects today's problems could lead to some attractive future
opportunities in the financial sector.
F
Troop
July 11, 2008
Mr
Practical argues
that bureaucrats are behind the plights of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
And that, unless we revolt, more bureaucratic intervention is pending.
Cross
Currents
July 10, 2008
So,
are we experiencing inflation,
stagflation,
or deflation?
Prof Depew answers (#1,2,3)
a definitive 'yes.'
Moveable
Feast
July 9, 2008
Prof
Jeffery notes
changing consumer behavior in light of higher food prices.
Price
Tag
July 8, 2008
What's
the difference between market capitalization and enterprise value?
Which better reflects a firm's overall worth?
Value
Trap
July 8, 2008
Prof
Sedacca explains (pt
1, pt
2) why he thinks stocks that look cheap may get cheaper.
Odd
Jobs
July 7, 2008
Mr
Practical points
out flaws in government methodology for estimating employment.
Deflation
Station
July 3, 2008
Mr
Practical perceives
the current economic situation as deflationary. This scenario carries investment
implications. Reread Mr P's missive until you get it.
Data
Processing
July 2, 2008
Prof
Depew laments (#1,2)
the contorted state of modern economic and financial data.
Storm
Warning
July 1, 2008
Prof
Shedlock argues
that, despite rising commodity prices, deflationary
forces are gripping the US economy.
Hat
in Hand
July 1, 2008
What
if financial firms can't obtain vital capital from the capital markets? Prof
Sedacca
ponders the consequences.
Rear
Window
July 1, 2008
Toddo
opines
that a multi-year period of economic slowness may be eminent. Despite his
bearish big picture, he has some bullish
trading positions grounded in near term catalysts.
Wither
Consumption
June 30, 2008
Prof
Depew asserts (#4)
that we're beginning a cultural shift towards less consumption. If true, what
are the economic and market implications?
Down
on the Farm
June 27, 2008
Prof
Rohrlich explains
how farm subsidies often benefit the rich.
Emotional
Rescue
June 26, 2008
Prof
Sedacca outlines
the diverging stories currenly being told by the stock and credit markets. Which
market does he think is telling the 'correct' story?
Time Capsule
June 25, 2008
Prof Depew
links today's current market context to a magazine cover from nearly 80
years ago.
Gambling Man
June 24, 2008
Prof Mauldin
discusses Warren Buffett's recent bet against actively managed hedge funds.
According to Prof Mauldin, what factor(s) work against Mr Buffett winning his
bet?
Water Spout
June 23, 2008
Prof Depew links (#1)
trends in water consumption to changes in social mood.
Home Wrecker
June 20, 2008
Prof Jeffery
describes what will be needed to realize a REAL bottom in the housing
market.
Stage Two
June 19, 2008
Profs
Sedacca and
Depew both think that the
credit crisis is entering stage two.
Oil Slick
June 18, 2008
Are we close to a top in crude
oil? What do
Prof Michael's data suggest?
WIN or Lose
June 17, 2008
Prof Mauldin
considers possible solution to the
inflation problem. What does he conclude?
Power Outage
June 16, 2008
Prof Krueger
suggests that the financial sector is gradually losing its influence over
general stock market indexes.
Pins &
Needles
June 13, 2008
Prof Succo's
skit sketches a plausible driver behind higher US interest rates.
When Doves
Cry
June 12, 2008
Prof Lewis
suggests that the Fed's tough talk about fighting inflation is just that. In
his view, why will the Fed continue with an 'easy' monetary policy.
Clearing the
Fog
June 11, 2008
Minyan Peter
thinks that more standards and transparency in the over the counter (OTC)
derivatives market are likely. Why does Peter think this 'matters?'
Premium Risk
June 10, 2008
Although the 'Fed Model'
suggests stocks are cheap, Prof Sedacca
explains why he thinks stocks are expensive and risk is high.
Prime Time
June 9, 2008
Prof Jeffery
suggests that rising default rates in prime, not sub prime, mortgage markets
signals further stress on the consumer.
Food for
Thought
June 6, 2008
Over dinner, Toddo and Mr P
suspect that foreigners may be pressuring the Fed to curtail dollar
devaluation policies.
Reversal of
Fortune
June 5, 2008
Although bank stocks have
recently sold off, Prof Goepfert
senses an eminent rebound.
Security
Guard
June 5, 2008
If the Fed is protecting big
banks from failure, then why not invest in them? Minyan Peter
discusses.
Cash Stash
June 4, 2008
Are high levels of cash bullish
or bearish for stocks? MV profs
debate.
Going Green
June 3, 2008
Outstanding
primer by Prof Depew on the US Dollar. Read it till you get it!
Trading Down
June 2, 2008
Prof Depew suggests (#3,4,5)
that evolving shifts in social mood will discourage consumption and encourage
thrift.
Short Story
May 29, 2008
Prof Goepfert
explains why short interest may no longer be an effective measure of bearish
market sentiment.
Global Boom
May 28, 2008
A Minyan
suggests that baby boom demographics are a global phenomenon.
Cashing In
May 27, 2008
How can you determine what a
stock is worth? One way is by examining
free cash flow.
Yellow Light
May 26, 2008
Have we seen the lows and is it
ok to buy? Prof Tuttle's
technical analysis suggests a more cautionary tone may be warranted.
History's
Mysteries
May 22, 2008
Prof Depew
notes (#1) that concern about speculator influence on commodity prices is
nothing new. Moreover, government intervention in these markets spans
at least 80 years.
Boomer Balloon
May 21, 2008
Interesting graphs showing the change in US demographics over a 90 year
period. What do the data project about change in various age groups by2040?
Four Corners
May 20, 2008
Prof Sedacca
elaborates four D's that spell economic trouble.
Buffett's
Bets
May 19, 2008
Prof Curtis
profiles some of Warren Buffett's recent stock purchases.
Too Much
Tech?
May 16, 2008
Prof Goepfert
suggests that current enthusiasm for tech stocks is a
bearish omen.
Hoofy's Heros
May 15, 2008
Toddo offers
five factors currently driving the market's bullish optimism.
Falling Down
May 14, 2008
Prof Mauldin
offers reasons why most
investors perform lower than average.
Yellow Light
May 13, 2008
Minyan Jeff Saut
is turning cautious after the market's recent run up.
Dark Shadows
May 12, 2008
Estimated values of Level 2
assets dwarf equity on many financial firms' balance sheets, per data
presented by Prof Sedacca.
Search &
Destroy
May 9, 2008
Don't like the natural pricing
mechanism embedded in markets? Simple, just shut them down and let bureaucrats
determine the 'correct' price (#4).
Down on Main
Street
May 8, 2008
Mr Practical
argues that the Fed's actions show a preference for Wall Street over Main
Street. Does he think the banking system is close to getting back to normal?
Level Three
Parking
May 8, 2008
Prof Sedacca
notes a number of large enterprises that currently possess more
Level III assets than capital.
Storm Season
May 7, 2008
Prof Goepfert
presents data that suggest a tough summer season for US stocks.
Striking Oil
May 6, 2008
Prof Payne
thinks that it's a mistake to attack the profitability of oil companies.
What's his rationale?
Water Shed
May 5, 2008
As financial firms issue
additional shares in order to raise capital, Minyan Peter
wonders if this big wave of shareholder dilution is nearing an end. What
does he conclude?
Enemy of the
State
May 2, 2008
Mr Practical
warns of a nascent proposal that could increase government power over
markets.
Crisis
Management
May 1, 2008
Minyan Peter
suggests that the market's problem does not relate to subprime or mortgages,
but rather to a consumer consumption crisis.
Outer Banks
April 30, 2008
Mr Practical
asserts the banking system is not functioning. What's his rationale? How
long might this continue? Does the ultimate outcome seem
inflationary or
deflationary?
Need for
Speed
April 29, 2008
Prof Mauldin
discusses the concept of money velocity. In recessions, is money velocity
typically fast or slow?
The Smell of
Oil
April 28, 2008
Prof Michael
suggests geopolitical forces may be behind crude oil's record prices.
Divergent
Thinking
April 25, 2008
How can markets be rallying in
the face of such bad economic news? Prof Depew
explains (#1).
Dukes of Earl
April 24, 2008
Prof Krueger
views the energy sector as strong and getting stronger while Prof Sedacca
wonders whether oil prices reflect a bubble ready to pop.
Low Morals
April 23, 2008
Prof Sedacca
discusses the concept of moral hazard as it relates to the current state of
the credit markets.
The Golden
Ratio
April 22, 2008
Nice primer by Prof Waggoner on Fibonacci mathematics and how they can be
applied to financial markets.
Gas Station
April 21, 2008
Prof Jeffery
provides background behind the recent
rise in natural gas prices.
Boom Times
April 18, 2008
Prof Limantour
thinks we're in the midst of a global
infrastructure boom.
Bottomless Pit
April 17, 2008
Prof Nelson
suggests that real market lows usually
coincide with few people 'calling the bottom.'
In the Beginning
April 17, 2008
Toddo
shares the origins of Minyanville as a
vehicle for improving financial literacy.
Weed Wacker
April 16, 2008
Using Wachovia (WB) as context,
Prof Depew
explains (#2) how banks' increased risk
aversion means tighter credit for consumers.
Electric Blues
April 15, 2008
Jeff Saut
contemplates the meaning of General
Electric's (GE) disappointing earning's report last week. What does he conclude?
Stuck in the Middle
April 14, 2008
Prof Jeffery
describes the dilemma that central banks
face as they battle
increasing prices and slowing economic growth.
Crude Attitude
April 11, 2008
Contrary to common wisdom,
Toddo
thinks that oil and stocks will likely
trade in the same direction from here. What is his underlying rationale?
Discount Rack
April 10, 2008
Mr Practical
explains why he thinks markets no longer
correctly discount information.
Fading Sentiment
April 9, 2009
Prof Goepfert
suggests that current economic pessimism
among small businesses may prove a valuable contrarian indicator.
Bottoms Up
April 8, 2008
Prof Collins
fields a question about whether the
market has bottomed or if we're merely experiencing a rally in a bear market.
What does he conclude?
Visible Hand
April 7, 2008
Mr Practical
suspects that the goverment is
intervening in the stock market. If it continues, what consequences does he
suggest?
Home Insurance
April 7, 2008
Although government
intervention in markets
now seems a given, Prof Zucchi
is struck by the brazenness of a proposal
to bail out home builders.
Food Fight
April 4, 2008
If agricultural prices continue
to increase, Prof Limantour
suggests that significant civil unrest is
possible.
The Big One
April 4, 2008
Mr Practical
thinks markets and economic systems are
in uncharted, and hazardous, waters. What is his recommendation for navigating
the treachery?
Fine Line
April 3, 2008
While some believe that markets
are plowing thru uncharted, dangerous territory (here,
here), Prof Mangano thinks that he's
seen this movie before and it doesn't end
badly.
Bottoms Up
April 2, 2008
Prof Cooper
senses that, from a technical standpoint,
markets are poised for a strong April advance.
Hands Off
April 1, 2008
Mr Practical
argues that bureaucratic intervention
decreases market integrity which, if continued, may destroy capital markets for
good.
Hoarding Cash
March 31, 2008
Prof Depew
explains (#3,4) why, despite Fed rate
cuts, credit is not making its way into the economy.
Material Witnesses
March 28, 2008
Despite the recent commodity
selloff, Profs
Limantour and
Krueger think secular winds are blowing
in favor of this group.
Low Riders
March 28, 2008
Minyan Peter and
Prof Zucchi ponder whether we've seen a
significant market bottom. What do they conclude?
Out of Africa
March 27, 2008
Prof Jeffery
describes the hyperinflationary condition
in Zimbabwe.
In a Box
March 27, 2008
Prof Jeffery
explains why two rumored additional
interventions by the Fed, 1) buying distressed mortgages and 2) intervening to
support the dollar, are diametrically opposed.
Long Time
March 26, 2008
Prof Katsenelson
explains why he prefers the longer term horizon of an
investor, and how to manage portfolio risk in lieu of a stormy market
outlook.
Practical Sense
March 25, 2008
Mr Practical
reflects on current central bank efforts to 'liquify' the credit markets.
What does he think is the ultimate outcome? (P.S. reread his missive until you
'get it')
Oceanography
March 24, 2008
What is the Baltic Dry Index (#2)
currently suggesting about global economic strength?
Breathe Deep
March 21, 2008
Prof Plessis
suspects that commodity prices may soften if world economies slow.
Circle of Spirit
March 20, 2008
Toddo
shares personal vibes related to the Bear Stearns situation (top) and the
passing of a dear friend (bottom).
Roundabout
March 19, 2008
Minyan Peter
suggests that we've likely not seen the last of the bailout process employed
in the
Bear Stearns situation.
Color Man
March 18, 2008
Prof Depew
provides color on the Bear Stearns buyout and where things might go from
here.
No Bear in There
March 17, 2008
The global market headline today involves the
Bear Stearns/JP Morgan news. Prof Jeffery
ponders the Fed's role. Toddo
shares a dinner convo he had with Bear managers late last week, and two
possible scenarios from here.
Green Eyeshades
March 17, 2008
Prof Jeffery
describes a proposal that would permit managers to revalue balance sheet
assets perceived as 'wrongly' priced by markets.
Lend a Hand
March 14, 2008
Prof Calianos
explains the notion of Lender of Last Resort in the context of recent
Federal Reserve actions.
Bankruptcy Court
March 13, 2008
Now that the Fed is putting risky mortgage securities on its balance, is it
possible that the central bank can go bankrupt? What does
Mr Practical conclude? Is this good for the dollar?
Aspect Ratio
March 12, 2008
On the back of today's moves by the Fed (#2,3,4),
Mr Practical offers a
historical example to demonstrate how things might play out. Does he think
today's problems will be fixed soon?
Rip Tide
March 11, 2008
Profs
Sedacca and
Shedlock provide further color on deteriorating credit market conditions,
but Toddo
wonders whether the news hasn't been priced into bank stocks for now.
Green or Red?
March 10, 2008
While a weak dollar increases current purchasing power of foreign currencies,
Prof Plessis
explains that foreign investors who recently purchased dollar denominated
investments are now generally worse off.
TAF or TAF Not
March 10, 2008
Prof Depew
explains (#2,3) the Fed's Term Auction Facility (TAF) operations and its
historical precedents.
Retail Details
March 7, 2008
Prof Macke
reports a slow month for the retail sector. How is he approaching it from an
investment perspective?
Grave Digger
March 6, 2008
A Minyan
nicely outlines the massive US entitlement problem that looms ahead. Why are
politicians slow to address this issue?
Spreading Pain
March 6, 2008
You may not understand all the details of
Prof Sedacca's post, but realize that widening credit
spreads are severely straining the financial system.
Golden Rule
March 5, 2008
Prof Lewis
suggests that gold's recent rally reflects loss of confidence in fiat
currencies. Protection against currency debasement is one
supporting argument for gold.
Liberty Lost
March 4, 2008
Mr Practical
argues that depending on government to solve economic problems results in
loss of freedom.
Hard Target
March 3, 2008
What would happen if the Fed targeted a particular inflation
rate? Ironically, perhaps
just what we've already realized.
Withdrawal Symptoms
February 29, 2008
Prof Jeffery
reports that more folks are taking early withdrawals from their retirement
accounts in order to make ends meet.
Debt on Debt
February 28, 2008
In a financial system that's choking on debt, Mr Practical
argues that creating more debt to 'fix' the system makes little sense.
Safety Dance
February 27, 2008
Prof Bloudek
thinks higher commodity prices have resulted from investors exchanging
devalued currency for 'stuff.' He also ponders the longevity of this 'safehaven'
flow.
Moody Blues
February 26, 2008
Prof Depew
proposes (#4,5) that the root cause of economic downturns is grounded in
socionomics, or the study of social moods.
Day of Reckoning
February 26, 2008
Minyan Peter
argues that, until financial institutions take further (and major) losses,
interim bail out schemes merely postpone the inevitable.
Cinderella Man
February 25, 2008
While many search the 1970s for parallels to the current debt
crisis, Prof Depew
thinks the 1930s are a more apt comparison.
Stag Party
February 22, 2008
An
outstanding primer on stagflation by Prof Depew. Note his thought that
staglation is merely a transition from inflation to deflation.
Coiled Spring
February 22, 2008
Because of divergences between credit and equity markets, Toddo
senses that a big move in stock prices is pending.
That Was Then
February 21, 2008
Might the US be headed for a deflationary environment similar to
Japan in the 1990s? MV profs
opine.
Hand Stand
February 21, 2008
Mr Practical
continues to observe evidence of market buying patterns that seem 'non
economically' motivated.
Battle Cry
February 20, 2008
Toddo
noodles over the market's current battle between
inflation and
deflation.
Behavioral Adjustment
February 20, 2008
Prof Calianos
separates trading from investing. What does he suggest happens when the
behavior of these two groups overlaps?
Future Prospects
February 19, 2008
Should pension funds buy large amounts of risky assets like
stocks? MV profs
discuss.
Point of Return
February 18, 2008
Prof Plessis
presents data indicating that returns from stocks improve with longer
holding periods.
Shell Game
February 15, 2008
Wondering what the
bearish case for the market is? Prof Depew
lays it out (#1) in a nutshell.
Four Eyes
February 14, 2008
Toddo
makes sense of the current market environment by looking through various
lenses. What 4 primary metrics does he employ?
The Lost Decade
February 13, 2008
Prof Depew
observes (#2) that investors would have been better off in short term bonds
rather than in S&P 500 stocks over the past 10 years.
Insurance Claim
February 12, 2008
Prof Roy
suggests that the biggest issue in today's credit markets relates to
counterparty risk.
Card Shark
February 11, 2008
Prof Shedlock
proposes a link between consumer gift card activity and prospects for
deflation.
Checkout Counter
February 8, 2008
Based on dismal same store sales results, Prof Macke
offers a plan for retail investors.
Social Study
February 7, 2008
Mr Practical
suggests that bureaucrats think they can allocate resources better than
market mechanisms. What does Mr Practical propose as the greatest socialist
invention of all time?
Sign Post
February 6, 2008
Toddo
ponders whether the current market juncture resembles 1998, 2001, or...1929.
What formula does he suggest will help navigate this difficult juncture?
The Letter I
January 30, 2008
Toddo
recounts perhaps the worst day of his trading career, and what he's learned
from it.
Red Spreads
January 30, 2008
Prof Depew
explains (#1) why the widening spreads between junk bonds and treasuries
matter.
Time Passages
January 29, 2008
Toddo
nicely frames his near term market view inside of a longer term picture. How
is he currently allocating his capital? How much debt does he have?
Interest Only
January 28, 2008
Prof Shedlock
reflects on the sizeable recent decline in market interest rates and who
might benefit.
Master Piece
January 25, 2008
Mr Practical
describes the current deflationary context, and why intervention may not
'work.' How does he suggest investors position themselves?
Sentimental Journey
January 24, 2008
Prof Goepfert
notes that, while some sentiment measures are at extremes, they are
generally not quite at panic levels seen in the past.
Break Time
January 23, 2008
Minyan Peter
suspects that the waterfall decline in financial stocks is due for a pause,
but long term risk is being transferred to shareholders.
CDS Player
January 22, 2008
Prof Jeffery
provides a timely primer on Credit Default Swaps and their relevance in the
current market environment.
Cash Stash
January 18, 2008
In uncertain times, Prof Tatro
suggests that individual investors might benefit from taking risk off and
moving to cash.
Bottom Fishing
January 17, 2008
Prof Nelson
argues that, during deep market corrections, you should resist the
temptation of buying stocks out of fear of missing a rally. Focus instead on
risk management.
Citi's Signal
January 16, 2008
Prof Jeffery
suggests that Citigroup's ugly quarterly report is symptomatic of larger
economic issues.
Drop Stop
January 15, 2008
Policymakers seem poised to keep market prices from falling. Does Minyan Jeff
Saut
think this is a good idea?
Undertone
January 14, 2008
Prof Geopfert
studies whether current high cash levels mean that investors are
underinvested. What does he conclude?
Retail Details
January 11, 2008
Prof Macke
demonstrates what solid end of quarter analysis of the retail sector looks
like.
The Visible Hand
January 10, 2008
Toddo
observes that the Plunge Protection Team, once a topic reserved for
conspiracy theorists, has become an acknowledged reality.
M&Ms
January 9, 2008
Might M1 and M2 money supply data reflect a
deflationary theme? Prof Depew illiminates (#2).
Fortune Teller
January 8, 2008
Prof Plessis
presents data suggesting that stock market prices effectively forecast
economic recessions.
Operating Room
January 8, 2008
Using gold mining
companies as an example, Minyan Peter
explains why operating leverage leads to enormous temptation for financial
leverage (a.k.a. debt).
Led Debt
Jaunary 7, 2008
Outstanding
missive by Prof Depew on the difference between a debt crisis and a
liquidity crisis. Read until you 'get it.'
Theme Park
January 4, 2008
Prof Depew
suggests 5 themes that will shape markets this year. Do any resonate with
you?
Plastic Bag
January 3, 2008
Credit card companies are
tightening the screws on as credit markets worsen. Make sure you stay in
control.
Path Dependence
January 2, 2008
While Prof Sedacca's
entire missive is worth a read, pay close attention to his 'Where we are'
section, including data on
household debt,
debt service, and
household free liquidity.
Loan Ranger
December 31, 2007
Do problems in home loan markets lead to issues in car loan markets?
Perhaps not.
Yellow Brick Road
December 28, 2007
Prof Plessis
presents a current case for gold. Prof Shedlock
adds that gold outperforms during extreme economic situations.
Choose or Lose
December 27, 2007
Minyan Peter
argues that, for the first time in a generation, Americans will need to
reconcile wants with means in 2008. Can you prioritize?
Thematic Schematic
December 26, 2007
Last January, Toddo
laid out 10 themes for 2007. Here's
how things turned out.
Choir Boy
December 24, 2007
Prof Zucchi
thinks recent employment data has a recessionary tone to it.
Captain Crunch
December 21, 2007
Prof Depew
illuminates the meaning of 'credit crunch.'
Practical Advice
December 20, 2007
Mr Practical
proposes a money management strategy for the turbulent times he foresees. A
straightforward, low stress approach that anyone could follow.
Snapshot Gallery
December 19, 2007
A few charts to ponder from Prof Sedacca's
2008 outlook: US
broad money supply (aka M3) in $trillions, value of
total derivatives outstanding (blue graph) in $trillions,
world capital structure (note top heavy derivative & credit shape).
A Day in the Life
December 19, 2007
Prof Tatro
shares his pre-market morning routine as a trader.
Uncharted Territory
December 18, 2007
Fill in the blanks: As ___ unwinds, the economy ___. This process
is not ending, it is just ___. Risk is ___. For guidance, see Mr Practical's
comments
here.
Hazard or Health
December 17, 2007
While some
ponder the hazards of this market juncture, others
view the price action as an indication of health.
Deflation Station
December 14, 2007
What economic concept does
Mr Practical and
Prof Depew think you should get familiar with in 2008:
Deflation. In fact, Mr Practical thinks
we're already entered a deflationary period.
Mr Hand's Fast Times
December 13, 2007
Toddo
recounts a nutty 26 hours with the
tape. The Invisible Hand
seems a plausible suspect in the antics.
Open House
December 13, 2007
Prof Shedlock
provides some nice snapshots of the housing market. As a preview, check out
home ownvership and
house price vs rent.
Rescue Me
December 12, 2007
Prof Depew
observes (#2) that Fed rate cuts are
not well correlated to higher market prices.
Price of Prudence
December 12, 2007
Although
some view current markets as wrought with risk, a Minyan
argues that intelligently managing risk has not paid well. Mr Practical
suggests that prudence will ultimately be rewarded.
Texas Tea
December 11, 2007
Prof Michael
presents the bullish fundamental case for crude oil. How does he suggest oil
differs from other commodities such as copper?
Martial Law
December 10, 2007
Mr Practical
questions whether the mortgage bailout plan will result in desired effects.
Like others, he suggests a negative impact on contract law.
Broken Contract
December 7, 2007
With the government's plan (#1)
to freeze adjustable rate mortgages for years, Prof Fleckenstein
ponders the ramifications on contract law.
Force Field
December 6, 2007
Mr Practical
illustrates the current battle between reflation and deflation forces. As he
asks, which side do you think will win? Why?
Cause for Pause
December 5, 2007
Even if you aren't an active trader like Prof Tatro, you'll
likely benefit from
his suggestion to reflect on your financial decisions over the past year.
Two Sided Coin
December 4, 2007
Although his big picture views are bearish, Toddo
offers some near term light for the bulls in the spirit of
seeing both sides of the trade.
Freeze Frame
December 3, 2007
Prof Bloudek questions
wonders whether the financial system is currently in big trouble. How do
Toddo and Mr Practical reply?
Social Studies
December 3, 2007
Minyan Satyajit Das
argues that in good times financial markets embrace capitalism, while in bad
times they embrace socialism.
Line of Sight
November 30, 2007
Nice example by Prof Zucchi of using
technical analysis to discern whether we're in a
bull or bear market. What does he conclude?
Aspire to Inspire
November 29, 2007
Toddo
shares the source of his inspiration for creating the 'Ville.
Citi Slicker
November 29, 2007
Yesterday Citigroup (C) received a big
capital infusion from a foreign investor. While some view this as
positive for stocks, others
arent so sure.
Credit Junkies
November 28, 2007
How is
'Fed extends lifeline to ailing banks' similar to 'Fed extends heroin to
ailing addicts'? Prof Depew
explains (#3).
LIBOR Labor
November 27, 2007
Get to know the meaning of LIBOR (#1
here). Has the spread between LIBOR and Fed Funds been
increasing or decreasing? Does this imply banks are
a) more willing or b) less willing to lend to each other?
Rhyme of Deflation
November 26, 2007
Minyan Peter
asks whether declining credit markets have ever NOT resulted in deflation.
Toddo,
Prof Reamer,
Mr Practical weigh in. What appears to be the answer?
Trend Watching
November 23, 2007
Prof Tatro
suggests always knowing the direction of the long term market
trend. Is the
S&P 500 currently in a long term
uptrend or downtrend?
F Troop
November 21, 2007
Keep an eye on the developing
situation with
Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM). These two are central to
credit market issues.
Crude Attitude
November 21, 2007
With crude oil approaching $100 per barrel, Prof Michael
suggests that some indicators are getting stretched. Correction pending? Or
is this time different?
Treasure Hunt
November 20, 2007
You have to search a little bit, but can you find Toddo's
three-pronged mantra for navigating today's market environment? Please note
that you don't have to be a 'pro' to follow this strategy!
Repo Men
November 19, 2007
Mr Practical observes
that although the Fed is providing
large amounts of liquidity to the financial sector, banks are
not lending it out. This is
deflationary.
Benign or Malignant?
November 16, 2007
Prof Depew ponders (#2)
whether recent subprime mortgage 'issues' aren't just a blemish on a much larger
credit market tumor.
Writedown Lowdown
November 15, 2007
What's it mean when a company like
Bear Stearns (BSC) takes a writedown? Prof Depew explains (#2,3).
Dollar Squalor
November 14, 2007
Toddo
senses that the US Dollar may be poised to rally. Why might this be a
negative for investors?
Optional Illusion
November 14, 2007
Mr Practical
suggests that yesterday's big rally was options related, and that
big picture issues haven't changed. What does he advise individual investors
to do?
Safety Dance
November 13, 2007
If you've parked cash in money market funds, please be aware that
these funds are NOT risk free (#1,2,3).
Strange Bedfellows
November 12, 2007
Prof Weldon
helps us understand what the art market, Goldman Sachs, and the Japanese Yen
have in common.
In the CDO Know
November 9, 2007
Prof Depew
explains what a CDO is and its current place in the escalating credit market
turmoil.
Surround Sound
November 8, 2007
Toddo offers insight into the current (and likely unprecedented)
market context thru a
litany of observations.
Less than Zero
November 7, 2007
Make sure you understand these terms:
mark to model and
Level III assets. Why? A modest decline in the
value of L3 assets would render some big financial institutions insolvent.
Subsidy Sandwich
November 7, 2007
Using China
as an example, Minyan Peter suggests the long term consequences of
government subsidies.
Credit Crush
November 6, 2007
Interesting data on reduced tendecy to
both lend and borrow. If this persists, do you know what's headed our way? (hint)
Coping with Loss
November 6, 2007
If you buy a stock and the price goes down, have you lost money
even though you haven't sold it? Prof Nelson
says yes.
Hobson's Choice
November 5, 2007
According to Prof Plessis, what is the
'Hobson's Choice' facing the Fed? If the Fed chooses inflation, how does this
impact international investors?
Straight Shooter
November 5, 2007
Toddo
shares a link to a
recent interview with Jimmy Rogers. This view won't win many political
friends, but you want to
see all sides of a trade.
New Wave
November 2, 2007
Is the worst over for credit markets and financial stocks?
Perhaps not (here,
here,
here #2&3,
here).
House Haunting
November 1, 2007
From
Professor Linden's data, what is the current US home ownership rate? What
was it prior to 1998? A stretch question to ponder: where could it go in a deep
slowdown?
Confidence Limits
October 30, 2007
Stock markets are near record highs, but consumer confidence is
at multi year lows (#1).
Maybe it's because folks feel less rich when pricing stocks in non dollar terms
(#2).
Fun with Fundies
October 29, 2007
Prof Zucchie
provides a nice example of fundamental analysis and of
seeing both sides of a trade.
Failure to Yield
October 26, 2007
Based on Prof Shedlock's
data, have borrowers benefited from the Fed's rate cuts? Currently, what is
the shape of the
yield curve?
Unusual Suspects
October 25, 2007
Toddo
ponders the magnitude and consequences of bureaucratic intervention in
financial markets. Does he foresee a happy ending?
Betting on Red
October 24, 2007
Prof Plessis
examines chance of recession as forecast by folks betting real money.
Currently, odds of an 08 recession stand at what?
Bank Examiner
October 23, 2007
Mr Practical
deciphers the core (and very large) problem facing the banks. If you reread
this until you understand it, you'll better sense the risky nature of the
current market environment.
Landscape Look
October 22, 2007
Nice example by Prof Plessis of
assessing the stock market landscape from
technical,
psychological, and
structural perspectives. Does this analysis seem
bullish or bearish?
No Quarter
October 21, 2007
Prof Goepfert
notes that a 'Hindenberg Omen' signal has been triggered. Has positive or
negative market activity typically followed?
Confidence Limits
October 19, 2007
Prof Tatro offers
some ideas for those who lack financial market decision making confidence.
Personal Account
October 18, 2007
Prof Succo
recounts the 1987 crash. In his
followup Mailbag, who is responsible for managing your financial market
risk?
Anger Management
October 17, 2007
A
proposed bailout of banks' losing investments
angers Todd & others, although
comments from some pros suggest a bailout won't be easy.
Small Sentiment
October 16, 2007
Prof Goepfert
suggests that the optimistic behavior of small investors may be signaling an
extreme in sentiment.
Golden Rule
October 15, 2007
Prof Lewis
notes the
dollar's drop and
gold's ascent to
27 yr highs. They are
not unrelated.
Red Dawn
October 12, 2007
Credit market problems in Russia have
caught the attention of MV profs (here,
here,
here). As Toddo
notes, there are historical precedents here...
Serf City
October 12, 2007
Mr Practical & Prof Depew (#1)
suggest that most people will be worse off due to
hyperinflationary policies. The
gold market seems to 'get it.'
Style Counsel
October 11, 2007
Regardless of whether you're a
trader or investor, Prof Tatro
stresses the importance of matching your market style with your personality.
The Tech Spec
October 10, 2007
Is speculation getting a bit too frothy? Perhaps, suggests Prof Goepfert's
sentiment data.
Home Alone
October 9, 2007
Does Prof Zucchi
think the carnage is over in the homebuilder sector? What scenario
does he envision?
Attitude Adjustment
October 8, 2007
According to
Prof Tatro, 'outperforming the market' is a worthy goal. True or false?
Hands On
October 4, 2007
Mr Practical ponders the influence of central banks on
Chinese and
domestic markets. In his view, is risk decreasing or increasing?
Q4 Score
October 4, 2007
Toddo
offers five themes that might shape markets in the 4th quarter. Which one(s)
resonate most with you?
Losing the Losers
October 3, 2007
Prof Tatro
explains why letting go of losing positions can be an effective way to
manage risk.
Global Game
October 2, 2007
Prof Nelson
suggests that global market returns will exceed US market returns in coming
years.
Strange Days Indeed
October 1, 2007
Toddo,
Prof Sedacca, and
Mr Practical sketch unprecedented (and risky) aspects of current market
context.
Tech Time?
September 28, 2007
Prof Krueger
is thinking that the tech sector may be ready to fly high once again.
Wide Angle Lens
September 28, 2007
Toddo
explains why it is important to
see all sides of the trade in the present market environment.
Skeptical Sketch
September 27, 2007
Mr Practical shares
skepticism for government officials (past and present) and suggests market
participants are
underestimating the concurrent risks.
Magnum Force
September 26, 2007
Toddo
ponders the Fed's recent actions to stabilize credit markets. Can you see
why the dollar's value is important at this juncture?
Dollar Squalor
September 25, 2007
Textbook example of market assessment using multiple perspectives. What do
you conclude about the US Dollar from this analysis?
Bubble Trouble
September 25, 2007
From
Prof Sedacca's chart of
bubble like markets: orange = Japan stock market, yellow = Nasdaq, white =
homebuilder's index, green = Chinese stock market. Key takeaway???
Stop Sign
September 25, 2007
Prof Tatro
explains the merits of using
stops to help
manage risk.
Dueling Banjos
September 24, 2007
Prof Zucchi
ponders whether the future will be shaped by (hyper)
inflation or
deflation.
Fix or Fracture
September 21, 2007
Post
Fed rate cut, folks are
fleeing the
US dollar,
bonds have sold off and
gold has ripped higher. Not exactly a picture of 'price
stability', and due perhaps to
less confidence in fiat currency.
Pushing on String
September 20, 2007
Using a
socionomics framework, Prof Depew
suggests that Fed rate cuts will have little effect if general social mood
turns toward risk aversion.
Tough Love
September 20, 2007
The bursting housing bubble is
the fault of a) homebuilders b) mortgage brokers c) banks d) homeowners.
Prof Katsenelson votes for who?
Cutting Deep
September 19, 2007
The Fed
cut rates more than
expected, sparking a
big rally and both bullish (here,
here,
here,
here) and bearish (here,
here,
here,
here,
here) remarks. Make sure you
see both sides.
Fairway Fed
September 18, 2007
With the Fed's pending interest
rate decision, Prof Macke
offers a roadmap for making sense of the action.
Hands Off
September 17, 2007
Building on Mr Practical's
observations, Prof Sedacca
ponders the likelihood and consequences of central bank intervention in the
stock markets.
Liquid Tide
September 14, 2007
How does the Fed influence monetary system liquidity without
materially affecting its balance sheet? Mr Practical
explains.
Dukes of Hazard
September 13, 2007
Credit market turmoil is
compelling central banks to act in
aggressive ways. Such action reinforces moral hazard (#1,2).
No Glut No Glory
September 13, 2007
Prof Shedlock
argues that the proposed 'global savings glut' is nothing more than
imbalance caused by a speculative credit binge.
Grand Illusion
September 12, 2007
Prof Depew suggests (1,2,3)
that credit expansion creates an illusion of wealth that won't last forever.
The Worst of Times
September 11, 2007
Toddo
reflects on the fateful day six years past.
Emotion in Motion
September 11, 2007
Nice
war story by Prof Tatro that implies the undesirable impact of
emotions on financial decision making.
Losing Air
September 10, 2007
Mr Practical
suggests that we're experiencing a credit crunch stemming from unserviceable
debt. This is
deflation in motion.
Euro Focus
September 7, 2007
While US and Asia dominate the
current focus, Minyan Peter suggests that
Europe is key relative to the credit markets.
Golden Myth
September 7, 2007
Prof Shedlock
dispels common wisdom that gold is an effective
inflation hedge. Instead, he argues that gold does well during extremes,
including
deflationary times.
Commercial Free
September 6, 2007
With commercial paper markets
increasingly in the news, Prof Depew explains CP (#1)
and why it matters.
Terms of Credit
September 5, 2007
How does Jeff Saut
define a 'credit crunch?' Does he think we're there yet?
Red Dawn
September 4, 2007
Mr Practical
comments on government intervention in market workings and its
socialistic implications.
You're in Good Hands
September 3, 2007
Prof Depew
explains why Fed policy is like a
put option, and why a put option is like an insurance policy. Is this smart
insurance?
Plus Column
August 31, 2007
Based on analysis of data linked to market sentiment, Prof Goepfert
suggests a positive intermediate term outlook for stocks.
Crunch Time
August 30, 2007
Prof Depew
explains the mechanics of a credit crunch, and follows up on its impact on
prices.
Intensive Care
August 29, 2007
How in the world can a recession be a healthy thing? Mr Practical
explains.
The Risk in 'Low Risk'
August 29, 2007
Most money market funds invest in uninsured assets. While unlikely, loss is
possible (#4,
#4). Toddo is
managing his risk here.
Style Counsel
August 28, 2007
Regardless of whether you're a
trader or investor, you'll likely benefit from Prof Tatro's missive on
developing a strategy & style.
Homewrecker
August 28, 2007
As
softness in credit and home sectors continue, Prof Zucchi
suggests that bonds of homebuilding companies may be key indicators.
Grand Illusion
August 27, 2007
As
markets rally in hopes of more Fed intervention, Toddo suggests that folks
should
be careful for what they wish. Mr Practical notes the
moral hazard embedded in the
Fed's escalating actions.
A New New Deal?
August 24, 2007
Mr Practical
comments on a pundit's plea for government intervention in the credit
markets. Prof Shedlock suggests the pundit's
ulterior motive.
Note Book
August 23, 2007
Want to improve your financial decision-making process? Prof Tatro
suggests journaling your investment thoughts and actions.
Credit Chronology
August 22, 2007
Looking for a compilation of recent events in the credit markets? Toddo
offers a chronology. Does Todd think this will end well?
Practical View
August 21, 2007
Mr Practical
discusses the debt and leverage drivers of recent credit market turmoil.
Does he see
Fed intervention as the best solution?
Turret Tumult
August 21, 2007
Wanna be a
trader? Toddo
recounts his trading activity during last week's wild ride.
Watching Reruns
August 20, 2007
On Friday the Fed enacted a
surprise 50 bip discount rate reduction. Some have seen this movie before (here,
here).
Curve Ball
August 17, 2007
Professor Shedlock
reviews the dramatic movement in the short end of the
yield curve over the past couple days.
Falling Knife
August 16, 2007
Big declines in financial stocks have
some
looking for bargains. The overall context, however, appears
less constructive.
Mirror Image
August 15, 2007
As finger pointing for the
escalating subprime mess inevitably begins,
Toddo and
Scotto suggest looking inward for the
problem's source.
Extreme Measures
August
14, 2007
Prof Limantour notes
big losses
recently in funds with quantitative models that didn't account for extreme
market movements. The primary issue here is about managing
tail risk,
isn't it?
Parallel Form
August
13, 2007
Jeff Saut
reviews
the Banker's Panic of 1907 and finds interesting parallels with our market
situation 100 years later.
Support Group
August 10, 2007The Fed is
trying to liquefy credit markets and is now
taking ‘junk’ as collateral. Could be
bullish or
bearish near term, but
panic driven remedies may be
ineffective long term cures.
Crunch Time
August 10,
2007
More stress in the credit markets has central banks (here,
here) and politicians (here,
here) itching to intervene. If the do, will it avert a
credit crunch?
Cash or Credit?
August 9,
2007
Mr Practical
notes that our monetary system is composed of money + debt (or credit).
Which portion is larger? What happens if this portion declines? (hint)
Government Work
August 9,
2007
Prof
Limantour
introduces an increasingly potent market force, sovereign wealth funds, and
why SWFs could wield
huge influence.
Cornered
Office
August 8, 2007
Virtuous
Patience
August 7, 2007
Prof Tatro extols one of the most difficult to practice
market virtues:
patience. Plus, how your market actions
can reflect patience.
Credit/No
Credit
August 6, 2007
Given the
ongoing angst in the credit markets, Prof
Depew offers a
timely primer on credit ratings.
Falling
Knife
August 3, 2007
After their recent decline, the financials look attractive to
some traders (here,
here). However, the context of this group
is
now negative meaning that chances of
underperformance
have increased.
Containing
Contagion
August 2, 2007
Prof Depew
ponders the notion of contagion and whether current market problems are well
contained (#1
thru 4).
Agflation
August 2, 2007
According to Prof Krueger, what's the
best way to play growing demand for farm commodities? Here's
another hint.
Due Process
August 1, 2007
Attitude Adjustment
July 30, 2007
According to
Jeff Saut, which factor influences market prices to a greater degree:
liquidity or investor risk appetite?
Crossing Paths
July 27, 2007
Based on extremes he's seeing
from the
recent downward move, Prof Goepfert proposes
three possible paths from here. All of them are significant.
The Spread in Spreads
July 26, 2007
Although
big market moves are rarely 'caused' by one factor,
continued widening in credit
spreads suggests continued deterioration of
CDO markets is playing a role.
(Un)Lucky Seven?
July 25, 2007
Straw Poll
July 24, 2007
If
subprime woes worsen, will the Fed
step in and fix things? MV profs
have their doubts.
Bubble Trouble
July 23, 2007
Prof Sedacca
compares various 'bubble like' markets
using
this graph (Nikkei = orange, Nasdaq 100 =
red, Homebuilders Index = white.) Do you see similarity?
Connect the Fed Dots
July 20, 2007
Because most 'money' created
is actually debt, the Fed fears lack of
new debt creation (i.e. savings) (#1).
In such a situation, Fed influence
would weaken.
In The CDO Know
July 19, 2007
Prof Depew provides a nice
update (#1,2,3)on
the subprime CDO situation and why it matters to you.
Market Mover
July 18, 2007
Prof Goepfert
notes that Fed chairman speeches on
Capitol Hill have often marked important market inflection points.
Foreign Relations
July 18, 2007
This month's Treasury Dept report on
cross border financial flows (TIC) revealed large foreign buying of US
securities.
What could change this behavior?
Then & Now
July 17, 2007
Toddo
likens current market behavior to the
pre-crash 1987 period. Some think
other historical comparisons may be more
apropo.
Surprise
Attack
July 16, 2007
Prof Cooper
ponders last weeks' market moves to
record highs in the face of deteriorating context.
Pulse of
Pain
July 6, 2007
Prof
Sedacca
surveys
various markets from the perspective of a bond fund manager. What does he
conclude?
Separate Ways
July 5, 2007
Prof Katsenelson
explains why good companies may not be good stocks.
Slight of Hand
July 3, 2007
Higher stock prices
don't increase wealth if offset by reduced value of the currency. E.g.,
although the SPX is near record highs, it is
much lower when
priced in euros.
Altered States
July 2, 2007
Jeff Saut
considers the consequences when government intervenes with market
mechanisms.
Extra Credit
June 29, 2007
Apple Slices
June 28, 2007
On the back of his
recent missive on Apple's i-phone, Kevin Wassong
cautions against confusing product enthusiasm with investing.
M2M
June 27, 2007
Prof Depew
explains (#3) a financial concept that's getting much attention:
mark to model.
Smokey the Bear
June 26, 2007
Stay focused on
smoldering
subprime and
CDO problems. If they ignite a full fledged
forest fire, this will be a far reaching
market event.
Visible Hand
June 25, 2007
Prof Succo
suggests that stocks are being supported by price insensitive index buying.
This approach may have
little lasting effect.
Subprime Grime
June 22, 2007
CDO Blow
June 21, 2007
Toddo and
Succo consider the Bear Stearns derivative sitution (#1,2
here). Can you see that a key issue here involves
tail risk?
History's Rhyme
June 20, 2007
Prof Cooper
compares current market behavior to historical patterns and cycles. Are the
implications
bullish or bearish?
Bank Shot
June 19, 2007
Toddo
fields a question on the attractiveness of financial stocks. What does he
opine?
Credit/No Credit
June 18, 2007
Does high credit rating imply low risk? Prof
Katsenelson suggests
perhaps not.
Street Sale
June 15, 2007
Prof Succo
suggests that the need to sell and linkage to politics taints Wall Street's
ability to be objective and unbiased.
Dueling the Dragon
June 14, 2007
US officials are
pressuring China (#3
here) to devalue the Yuan or face legislative sanctions.
Is this wise?
Art Show
June 13, 2007
Yield Theater
June 12, 2007
Wondering about the consequences as bond market interest rates continue to
increase?
This skit outlines a plausible scenario.
90% Solution
June 11, 2007
Last Thursday's sell off marked a
90% down day. Prof Markman
shares the bullish implications. Prof Goepfert
concurs, but adds a bearish caveat.
Line of Sight
June 8, 2007
One Way Street
June 7, 2007
Fed Free Figuring
June 6, 2007
What if the Federal Reserve was eliminated? Prof Reamer
ponders possible consequences.
Spend or Die
June 5, 2007
Prof Depew ponders the spectre of government intervention to promote
spending over saving (#4).
Some might argue that this is already happening...
Premium Thoughts
June 4, 2007
Prof Succo
suggests that extreme risk seeking behavior has driven individual stock
options (more so than
index options) to attractive levels.
Debt Debate
June 1, 2007
Some
suggest that the US needs more (rather than less) debt. Prof Reamer says
no way.
Semi Tough
May 31, 2007
Contrary to popular belief, Nasdaq price movements are
not highly dependent on participation by semiconductor stocks (a.k.a.
semis or SOX).
Control Freak
May 30, 2007
Why should you care that China owns a large
portion of U.S. bonds? Prof Depew explains in
#2 here.
House Hunting
May 29, 2007
Although monthly new home sales
jumped sharply, Prof Zucchi casts a
jaded eye towards the report.
Short Shrift
May 25, 2007
Energy Econ
May 24, 2007
Prof Michael
suggests that the primary factor behind higher energy prices is simply
supply & demand. For example, note the
correlation between Chinese demand and crude prices.
China Syndrome
May 23, 2007
Toddo
considers China's growing influence on world markets. Should the US seek to
impede China's ascent? Prof Shedlock
thinks not.
Food Fight
May 22, 2007
Prof Limantour
discusses price increases and investment opportunities in food &
agriculture.
Debt Roulette
May 21, 2007
When you cross government sponsored cheap debt with risk seeking behavior, what
do you get? The
current market environ, and a
dangerous unstable game.
Yuan Dawn
May 18, 2007
Prof Lewis
thinks the Chinese yuan may be revalued higher soon. What are his proposed
consequences of a higher yuan?
Behind the Curtain
May 18, 2007
Prof Succo
shares his perception of 'unnatural' market price behavior. In his view,
what is driving high correlation between stocks?
Parallel Form
May 16, 2007
Is today's exuberant market environ really different from times past?
Perhaps not, as Toddo
suggests some parallels.
Substitute Teacher
May 14, 2007
Mr Saut
discusses opportunity in sources of two substitutes for petroleum-based
energy: coal and uranium.
Math Problem
May 11, 2007
Consumer
credit is soaring yet retail stores report poor monthly comps (#2
& #3). So, where is all the newly minted credit going???
Bubble Trouble
May 10, 2007
Prof Sedacca
ponders US stocks in light of other frothy markets. Others appear to be
doing same about Chinese stocks (#4).
Desperate Measures
May 8, 2007
Consumer credit
soared last month. Is this a sign of consumer resilience or desparation (#1
here,
here)?
Gold Nuggets
May 7, 2007
Profs
Lewis &
Limantour share thoughts on the near term outlook for gold--perhaps best
viewed in light of the
broader case for the yellow metal.
Relativity
May 4, 2007
Prof Lewis
observes that US stock market performance looks less impressive when priced
in
currencies other than dollars.
Truth or Dare
May 3, 2007
Money Pit
May 2, 2007
Electric Storm
May 1, 2007
While crude oil seems the focus,
perhaps folks are missing opportunity in the electricity portion of the
energy sector.
Gift Bag
April 30, 2007
Prof Macke
suggests that some investment ideas are best tracked by...shopping & eating
out.
In the Know
April 29, 2007
Be aware that some market players have
built info systems to obtain an edge. Factor that reality into your decision
process.
Chinese Riddle
April 26, 2007
Magic Ratio
April 25, 2007
Prof Tafel
demonstrates the value of ratio charts for studying relative price
performance of two assets.
Clear the Mechanism
April 24, 2007
If you've lost your 'feel' for the markets,
Toddo
suggests that stepping away from the action sometimes provides clarity.
Willing but Unable?
April 23, 2007
Profs Succo & Reamer
ponder whether the Fed truly controls credit creation. What if borrowers &
lenders don't want the credit?
Short but Sweet
April 20, 2007
Victory at Sea
April 19, 2007
Prof Limantour
notes that strong ocean shipping rates reflected by the
Baltic Dry Index suggests strong international trade flow.
Crude Kindness
April 18, 2007
What's been driving oil prices higher over the
last few yrs? Looks like Chinese demand has
played a big role.
Stuck on Stupid
April 16, 2007
Profs
Succo and
Katsenelson both question policymakers' mortgage bail out plans. Rewarding
stupidity & penalizing intelligence...
Material Girl
April 15, 2007
New MV prof
Sally Limantour specializes in commodities & currencies. Her insight (e.g.
here,
here,
here) should broaden your market awareness.
Hand Made
April 12, 2007
Prof Succo
ponders the unusual stock market price action. What two explanations does he
propose? Which does he
seem to favor?
Brand New World?
April 10, 2007
Are
'brand bonds' the next big thing in finance? Profs
Succo and
Greenberg aren't drinking this kool aid.
Connecting Dots
April 9, 2007
Can you follow
the rationale of
#2? Too much debt > save more > spend less > economy slows down > credit
contracts. A mechanism for deflation...
Roller Coaster
April 6, 2007
See
this graph of home prices converted into a
roller coaster ride. Check out that last hill climb and how high you are at
the end.
Getting Real
April 5, 2007
Do realtors add
value to the home buying process? Some
doubt it; others think
yes.
Sentiment Sense
April 4, 2007
Thoughtful give and take on the extent to which
sentiment is at an extreme (here,
here,
here,
here).
Saving Society
April 3, 2007
Stag Party
April 2, 2007
Excellent primer by Prof Depew on stagflation. Could we be in for a bout of
1970s style stagflation? Check out
#5 for one possibility.
Pump Primer
March 30, 2007
MV profs
argue that the Fed does indeed 'pump' excessive money and credit into the
system if it sets interest rates too low.
Home Plate
March 29, 2007
MV profs continue to pnoder weakening in housing and mortgage debt markets (here,
here,
here,
here,
here). Keep an eye on this area...
Short Story
March 28, 2007
If you're interested in shorting stocks, Prof Zucchi
shares why short selling can be so difficult, including a personal
war story.
Career Builder
March 26, 2007
What can students do to jumpstart their careers? Get your foot in the door and
make yourself indispensable.
Support Group
March 23, 2007
If the Fed lowers interest rates, shouldn't the US Dollar weaken? Prof Sedacca
explains why it might not.
Carried Away
March 21, 2007
Stock prices
have become correlated to levels of borrowed funds (particularly from
Japan). The risk of this situation escapes most people. Hopefully, not you.
Beggar's Banquet
March 20, 2007
Money & credit creation
depends on risk appetite of the crowd. If the collective state of mind turns
risk averse, then credit contracts. This is
deflation.
Going
Stag
March 16, 2007
Is
stagflation in
our future? If so, it may be a
transitionary phase into a deflationary environ.
Edge of Night
March 14, 2007
Toddo
outlines structural issues in our finance based economy. Prof Succo suggests
how to manage associated risk.
Time to Bail?
March 14, 2007
Perhaps the
Fed will lower interest rates to bail out the ailing mortgage sector. But is
this a
wise thing to do?
Revision Decision
March 13, 2007
The Big Sleep
March 12, 2007
Grand Illusion
March 9, 2007
Can policymakers control financial markets?
Believing so
may be a mistake.
Pressure Cooker
March 8, 2007
Mr Practical
laments that officials won't let markets clear unproductive excess, and
suggests reducing risk ahead of the crowd.
Zero Hour
March 7, 2007
Carry Out
March 6, 2007
Media Mogul
March 5, 2007
Interested in the
media sector? Minyanville's president
offers perspective.
Art of Deception
March 2, 2007
Despite declining prices, there is little evidence of
forced selling in a market context that is becoming
less constructive.
Tailgating
February 28, 2007
Toddo
reflects on yesterday's market decline. It's
place in
history suggests that we've seen much worse before.
Domino Effect
February 27, 2007
After a big decline in China (#1
here), US markets
sagged today as well. The question, of course, is what happens next (here,
here,
here,
here).
President Precedent
February 26, 2007
Does the presidential election cycle influence markets?
Some think yes.
Mind Bender
February 23, 2007
Toddo
suggests that current market
sentiment relates to faith in the Fed.
What happens if this sentiment changes?
Inflation Gone Wild
February 22, 2007
Read (and reread)
Prof Succo's missive. Inflation (expanding money & credit) has been driving
speculative market behavior. Can this persist indefinitely?
Moves of Gold
February 21, 2007
Mercury Rising
February 20, 2007
Prof
Katsenelson
reminds us that it's easy to forget about risk when prices are rising. And
prices
have been rising
Breaking Away
February 16, 2007
What does Mr Practical
advise for reducing the risk of behaving like the crowd (or herd)?
Opportunity Lost
February 15, 2007
Ever sell a stock that afterwards moves higher? Toddo
considers the cost associated with selling a position seemingly 'too early.'
Money
for Nothin'
February 13, 2007
Regarding #1
here, do you think cheap money is a good thing? Any potential drawbacks?
Mr Practical
opines.
Not
Advice
February 9, 2007
A
reminder that the 'Ville is about developing sound
thought process rather than doling out stock-specific advice.
Flux
Capacity
February 8, 2007
Toddo's coping
with this fluxy tape thru respecting 'compression', knowing his
strengths, longer time horizon, patience, & balanced emotion.
Gold Central
February 7, 2007
Prof Weldon
explains why central bank lowering of interest rates (cheaper credit) is
bullish for gold.
Savings Squabble
February 6, 2007
Prof Depew reminds us (here
#3,
here,
here) that when you invest, you do not save. Investing entails risk; saving
does not.
China Syndrome
February 2, 2007
As Prof Reamer
sees it, how might sickness in China's financial system 'infect' US markets?
Practical View
January 30, 2007
Mr Practical checks in from afar, and reflects on market risk levels. What
does he conclude?
Greenbackground
January 29, 2007
Excellent primer by Prof Depew on issues surrounding the US Dollar. Reread
till you 'get it.'
Vol Squall
January 26, 2007
Toddo warns of a big disconnect between current market behavior and future
volatility (here,
here).
Good Times
January 24, 2007
Profs
Harrison,
Depew,
Katsenelson discuss timing their market
decisions. Does it look like there's 'one right way' to do it?
Position Player
January 23, 2007
Toddo
shares some current positions in context of his overall market perspective,
plus
some details on how he's managing one position.
Cold Compress
January 18, 2007
High levels of market liquidity
are compressing volatility. What happens when 'decompression' arrives?
Worry Wisdom
January 17, 2007
Professor Goepfert
questions Wall Street 'wisdom' that bull markets climb a 'wall of worry.'
Pin Point
January 16, 2007
Profs
Macke and
Warner illuminate the concept of 'pinning' in context of the pending monthly
option expiry.
Cause of Illusion
January 12, 2007
When markets are moving, sometimes the cause lurks in hard-to-see
structural influences.
Humble Pie
January 11, 2007
A
war story from Toddo about the need for humility when trading.
Inverse Curse
January 9, 2007
Toddo (here,
here) suggests an inverse relationship between the dollar and asset prices.
Wonder
Wall
January 5, 2007
Professor
Reamer wonders
why the BLS won't share its model that estimates the largest component of US
employment data. The reason may
be political.
Correlation
Station
January 5, 2007
The correlation between stocks is increasing, and Professor Succo explains why it matters.
Hard
Rain
January 3, 2007
Pardoxically,
the rain
of liquidity
that central banks hope will inflate markets may ultimately
deflate
them.
Ghost
of M3
January 1, 2007
Dueling
Horizons
December 29, 2006
Professor Depew suggests that, due to a shorter time horizon, traders
should focus on different info than longer term investors.
Crowding
Risk
December 28, 2006
Unhedged
December 27, 2006
Responding
to a recent editorial, Professor Succo suggests
that hedge funds are not the primary source of concerns about 'cheap money' and
market health.
Peeking
Into '07
December 26, 2006
Toddo offers
some vibes on the fast approaching new year.
Pyramiding
Risk
The
Central Crowd
December 14, 2006
By buying
financial assets, central banks crowd
out private investors and encourage more risk taking. Can
this last?
Gift
Rap
December 13, 2006
Here's
what Toddo's keeping an eye on as the markets head towards year end.
Market Socialism
December 8, 2006
M3 Gone Wild
December 7, 2006
The Fed's been hard at work tightening money supply, right?
Professor Depew and a
blogging Minyan think not.
Fear of Missing II
December 5, 2006
Similar to
Professor Macke a while back,
Toddo outlines the anxiety caused by the need to match others' performance.
It's About Risk
December 4, 2006
Professor Succo portrays the collective tone of the market as highly risk
seeking (as opposed to risk averse).
Rally Caps
November 30, 2006
Is it
'healthy' when all stocks move higher together? Professor Succo
offers a diagnosis.
Dilemma
November 29, 2006
Toddo ponders the Fed's interest rate dilemma. Raising rates seemingly leads
to what problems? Lowering rates?
Snake Eyes
November 27, 2006
Professor Succo suggests the role of the yen carry trade in the current
market environment--and the government's role as well.
Credit/No Credit
November 23, 2006
Although
massive US credit creation
ultimately depends on people's willingness to take risk, central banks
can help nudge the process along.
Tick Top
November 20, 2006
Presuming smart market players sell near tops, various MV professors ponder a
pending real estate buyout (here,
here,
here,
here,
here).
Fear of Missing
November 16, 2006
As stock markets march higher,
Professor Macke shares the 'underperformance anxiety' mechanism that can
pervade fund managers' thought processes.
The Pig Market
November 14, 2006
Towards the bottom of
this post, Professor Succo offers a 'risk adjusted' view of the bullish
market action.
Debt Burden
November 10, 2006
Professors
Succo and
Pomboy reflect on the ever increasing US debt levels required to support GDP
and consumer spending.
Day By Day
October 31, 2006
As foreign
ownership of US financial assets continues to rise,
Professor Succo notes that the US is slowly selling itself--and foreign
central banks may be the big buyers!
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1999-2009 Matthew W. Ford.